Séminaire de Probabilités et Statistique

Le lundi 26 mars 2012 à 15:00 - UM2 - Bât 09 - Salle 331 (3ème étage)

Dawit Zerom
Empirical analysis of ambulance travel times:
the case of Calgary (Canada) emergency medical services

Using administrative data for high-priority calls in Calgary, Alberta, we estimate how ambulance travel times depend on distance. We find that a logarithmic transformation produces symmetric travel-time distributions with heavier tails than those of a normal distribution. Guided by non-parametric estimates of the median and coefficient of variation, we demonstrate that a previously proposed model for mean fire engine travel times is a valid and useful description of median ambulances travel times. We propose a new specification for the coefficient of variation, which decreases with distance. We illustrate how the resulting travel-time distribution model can be used to create probability-of-coverage maps for diagnosis and improvement of system performance.

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